Published in the DominionPost of 19 November 2008

Now that the election is over, a new government has been formed, and a new opposition team has been settled, it's timely to ask whether there is a way back for Labour. The answer is yes, but it will not be simple or easy.

For Labour to win, three things need to happen. One is that National has to fail. Naturally John Key and his new Ministers will resist that to their utmost. But bad luck and adverse international events have thrown governments off course before, despite the talent and determination that the Ministers might bring to the Cabinet table.

The first oil shock completely derailed the 1972/75 Labour government of Norman Kirk and Bill Rowling. Kirk's death in early 1974 didn't help and Labour's response to the trebling of oil prices was measured and responsible. Rob Muldoon was able to make Labour responsible for an economic mess which, arguably, it had not really created, and he won the 1975 election easily.

A deepening international financial crisis, a massive jump in unemployment and some shocking signs of social unrest and upheaval would not make it easy for the Key government - if those things happen, if they handle them badly, and if Labour can make it "National's fault."

Secondly the Greens have to do better. The Greens cannot avoid some responsibility for the failure of the centre left bloc. In 1975 election the Green's antecedent, the Values party got 5.3% of the votes. In 2008, the Greens after twelve years in Parliament have got this up to 6.4%. Their best ever share of the party vote was 7% in 1990 and in 2002.

They are nowhere nearer being in government or having a substantial influence on government than they were when they had three MPs elected as part of Jim Anderton's Alliance in 1996.

They failed with genetic engineering in 2002, and with climate change in 2008, to make green issues central to the thinking and voting behaviour of New Zealanders. Only 3.5% of voters think the Greens are the party closest to what they feel are the important issues, according to research undertaken by Victoria University. National got 43% and Labour 20%. Even ACT got 6%. The green cause may be worthy but the current leaders have failed as advocates.

If they are to be part of a centre left bloc in the next government, the Greens have to increase their vote without cannibalizing it from Labour. Not an easy task, but it can be done.

Ask ACT how. It starts with by winning an electorate seat (which the Greens had, but lost) and continues by building their own brand as compatible with, but also distinct from, Labour's brand.

Thirdly Labour has to reconnect with New Zealanders. Labour is not seen as standing for the values of the majority of New Zealanders any more. The story is told in the solid working class seats. In Waimakariri Labour's majority fell from 5600 in 2005 to 518, and in Heretaunga from 8277 to 625.

Labour hold 18 seats in metropolitan areas compared to National's 13, but National has ten seats in provincial cities compared to just one for Labour (Palmerston North) and 18 provincial/rural seats (Labour none).

National won the party vote in several traditional Labour seats. It took the party vote in Phil Goff's seat of Mount Roskill, in Maungakiekie, in David Cunliffe's New Lynn, Chris Carter's Te Atatu, in Palmerston North, Port Hills, Wellington Central, and Waimakariri.

In choosing Goff and King as their leaders, Labour has chosen two strong and experienced political characters who look like mainstream Kiwis. They will do the necessary things; reshape the front bench, bring new talent forward, unify the party, and focus it on combating the government in Parliament. That's already begun. The real task will be to rattle the voters' belief that National not Labour better reflects their values and aspirations.

Goff and King are not temporary leaders. An anxious and ambitious caucus will be behind them until the next election assuming no huge stumbles, reasonable performance by them, and polls which show Labour 'in reach' of being the government. Losing the 2011 election would seal their fate. They'll have just one shot at becoming Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister.

The new generation of leaders - David Cunliffe, Shane Jones, Maryan Street, Charles Chauvel, Darren Hughes and others - will feel themselves ready by then. So Goff and King have an opportunity, but it is an opportunity that will last only the term of this Parliament.